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Understanding and planning for future demand in aged residential care

The Health New Zealand Aged Care Resident Projection model (the model) provides estimates of the number of people who will be residents in aged residential care up to the year 2039/40.

The model will help aged care providers assess the future demand for aged residential care (ARC) facilities in a district.

The model does not constitute a statement of the numbers that Health New Zealand considers will be in ARC. Rather, it assists others to form their own judgement. 

The projections will be updated around October each year once the actual figures from the payment system for the previous June year have been validated. As part of our ongoing aged care review, Health New Zealand | Te Whatu Ora is sharing an updated version of a planning tool designed to help aged care providers understand how demand for aged residential care (ARC) may change over time.

About the model

The Aged Care Resident Projection Model (previously known as the ARC Demand Planner) was originally developed by Ernst & Young and widely used by DHBs and providers between 2013 and 2022. 

The refreshed 2024 version incorporates the number of residents recorded in the Health NZ payment system in the 2023/24 year and estimates the future number of residents based on the latest projections of expected population growth.

The model allows users to adjust settings such as timeframes, population growth, and utilisation rates to create and compare different demand scenarios. 

The model includes a graph and table of actual resident numbers from 2013/14 to 2023/24. It shows the resident numbers by the four main care categories: Rest home; Dementia; Continuing Care Hospital and Psychogeriatric. A fifth category with “Aligned” as a title includes younger disabled residents, and various short-term residents entering ARC for respite, step-down from acute hospital before returning home and end-of-life care.

The excel workbook includes a detailed explanation of the methodology used for the projections.

Access the model

For guidance on using the model, refer to the built-in instructions and notes on the first tab. For further support or to provide feedback, please email.

Please note:

  • The Excel spreadsheet has two dashboard worksheets/tabs, but only one set of master lever controls which are on the ‘Dashboard’ worksheet/tab.
  • Therefore, when looking at the ‘Historical trend’ worksheet/tab it is suggested that users open a second window (on the ‘View’ tab on the ribbon at the top, then the ‘Window’ section and ‘New Window’).
  • This allows users to change the levers on the ‘Dashboard’ worksheet/tab and see the results displayed on the ‘Historical trend’ worksheet/tab.